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Centre for Internationalization

The Big Four Narrowed the Door Together. Students Are Finding Others.

Australia, Canada, the UK and the US have all tightened student entry since 2024. New study visas across the four fell about 38 percent in two years, while Germany, Japan and South Korea kept growing.

By the WAC editorial team6 min read18 sources

On October 2, Australia stopped letting most international students bring family members with them. Assistant minister for international education Julian Hill confirmed that the dependant restrictions took effect that day, alongside new limits on changing course or provider once in the country. PhD candidates, government-scholarship holders and students from ASEAN and Pacific Island nations are exempt[1].

Three weeks earlier, the UK Home Office published its count for August, the peak month for study visa applications: 99,500 from main applicants. By our calculation from the Home Office table, that is about 17 percent fewer than the 120,300 of August 2025 and about 32 percent fewer than the 147,200 lodged in August 2023[2]. Either would once have been major news in the sector. In 2026 they are routine, and that is the real story.

Four governments, one direction

Since the start of 2024, all four of the big English-speaking destinations have made themselves harder to enter[3]. Each acted for its own domestic reasons, and the timing overlapped.

  • Canada capped study permits starting in January 2024, The PIE News reports[8]. Its plan for 2026 allows 155,000 new student arrivals, 49 percent below the 2025 target, according to ICEF Monitor[7].
  • The UK barred most students from bringing dependants from January 2024, and dependant applications in the year to August 2026 were 88 percent below 2023's level[2]. A levy on international students, which the regulator costs at £925 per student, is due from 2028-29[10].
  • Australia has held its National Planning Level at 295,000 new international students for 2026 and 2027, and charges AU$2,500 for a student visa application, ICEF Monitor reports[9].
  • The United States, under a December 2025 executive order, restricts visas for nationals of 39 countries with no exception for students[5]. A rule replacing open-ended student status with a fixed end date was due on September 15, 2026. A federal judge blocked it the day before, and the case continues[6].

One estimate captures the scale. An analysis by The PIE News and Higher Insights finds that new study visas issued by the four countries fell by approximately 38 percent between 2023 and 2025. Canada alone issued 399,405 fewer in 2025 than in 2023. The estimate has a limit: US data ran only to September 2025[3].

What it did to enrollments

Canada's international student population fell from 994,800 in December 2023 to 721,230 in November 2025, a 27.5 percent decline, according to immigration department figures reported by ICEF Monitor[7]. Ottawa did not plan a fall that steep. Auditor General Karen Hogan reported in March 2026, as covered by The PIE News, that just over 50,000 of the 255,000 new study permits forecast for 2025 had been approved by September, and that the department did not know why approval rates were below projections[8].

In the United States, the Institute of International Education's Fall 2025 Snapshot, covering 828 institutions, found new international enrollments down 17 percent. Total numbers slipped only 1 percent; that total includes graduates on post-study work authorization, whose numbers rose 14 percent[4]. For fall 2026, NAFSA and JB International project a 9.5 percent drop in overall enrollment: up to 111,000 students, $3.4 billion in local spending and more than 39,000 jobs. It is a projection built on institutions' survey responses, not a count[5].

“All Americans lose when international students and scholars are driven to more welcoming countries.”

Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO, NAFSA

Australia shows the same pattern under a softer policy. The government's own tracking, quoted by ICEF Monitor, has 2026 commencements running 8 percent below the same period in 2025 and 13 percent below 2019. Commencements are on track to finish under the planning level in both years[9].

Budgets that still assume growth

University budgets have been slower to adjust than students. England's regulator, the Office for Students, reported in May that 35.8 percent of providers ran a deficit in 2024-25 and that 42.7 percent expect one in 2025-26. Non-UK entrants fell 7.7 percent in 2024-25, yet providers' own forecasts assume a 22.5 percent rise in international entrants by 2028-29. The regulator considers those assumptions over-optimistic, and it estimates the levy alone will cost about £570 million in 2028-29[10].

In Australia, an analysis by Mark Rahimi of the University of Melbourne's Centre for the Study of Higher Education found that a 20 percent fall in international fee revenue would put 23 public universities in deficit, up from 12 last year. The list includes institutions where overseas students are only about one in 10 enrollments. Rahimi's summary to Times Higher Education: "The same revenue shock can have quite different consequences across institutions." He describes the exercise as a sensitivity analysis, not a forecast[11].

Where the students are going

Global demand has not shrunk. UNESCO counts nearly 7.3 million students abroad in 2023, up from 2.1 million in 2000[12]. The flow is being redistributed.

  • Germany enrolled a record 116,600 first-year international students, up from 88,000 a year earlier, and passed 402,000 in total in winter 2024/25, according to German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) figures reported by The PIE News[13].
  • France issued 116,835 first student residence permits in 2025, up 5.3 percent. On new entrants, France and Germany each appear to have passed Canada's 108,250, The PIE finds[3].
  • Japan counted 435,200 international students in June 2025, passing a target of 400,000 that had been set for 2033, ICEF Monitor reports[14].
  • South Korea had 314,400 in February 2026, having reached its 2027 goal of 300,000 about two years early, per ICEF Monitor[15].
  • Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates have each grown at least fivefold in a decade and now closely trail France, UNESCO reports[12].

The second response is to move the degree instead of the student. UK universities taught 699,660 students abroad through transnational education in 2024-25, more than the 681,430 international students enrolled in the UK itself, according to Universities UK International figures reported by The PIE News[16]. The University of Southampton's Delhi campus, opened in July 2025 with a first cohort of about 150, plans for up to 5,000 students a year by 2035[17]. Guidance technology is consolidating too: Singapore-headquartered Manifest Global, whose brands include the guidance platform Cialfo, bought BridgeU from Kaplan in April 2025, saying it wanted to connect students with universities worldwide[18].

What complicates the story

Three cautions apply. First, the restrictions answer real problems. Canada's auditor found that 153,000 students may not have been attending school in 2023/24[8], and Hill argues that Australia's success should be measured by the quality of students, not only the quantity[1].

Second, the big four have not emptied. The UK still issued 394,921 new study visas in 2025, more than the US, Australia or Canada by The PIE's estimate[3].

Third, the newer destinations are tightening as they grow. South Korea's university council reports that just over half of international students fall below the recommended Korean-language level, and the education ministry plans sanctions for universities that screen poorly[15]. Japan has announced a doubling of the time needed to gain permanent residency[14].

The WAC view

The lesson of 2024 to 2026 is that international enrollment is a policy variable before it is a market one, and governments can move it faster than universities can rebuild a budget. Institutions still forecasting double-digit international growth are planning on a map that the visa data no longer supports. The sturdier strategies in this evidence spread risk across more source countries, more destinations and more delivery models, including teaching students where they live. Destinations that are gaining should note how quickly welcome turned to restriction elsewhere.

What to do with this

For universities

Stress-test the budget against a 20 percent fall in international fee income and stop forecasting growth that visa data does not support. Treat a wider spread of source countries and transnational delivery as core strategy, not a side project.

For educators

Expect cohorts with a different mix of nationalities and levels, and more teaching delivered offshore or with partner institutions. Language and integration support is where fast-growing destinations are already under strain, so design it in from the start.

For edtech leaders

Guidance, admissions and credential tools built around four destinations need to cover Germany, France, Japan, South Korea and regional hubs, with rules that change often. Products that help institutions deliver and assure quality across borders meet a fast-growing need.

The events behind this article, in WAC News

Sources

  1. Australia's student visa restrictions take effect, curbing dependants and onshore applications. The PIE News, October 2, 2026.
  2. Monthly entry clearance visa applications, August 2026 (statistical release; data table Monthly_Vis_01). UK Home Office, September 10, 2026.
  3. UK led the world in study visa issuance in 2025 despite woes. The PIE News, July 20, 2026.
  4. Four Things To Know About the Fall 2025 Snapshot. Institute of International Education, November 17, 2025.
  5. U.S. Economy Stands to Lose $3.4 Billion from Precipitous Drop in International Students. NAFSA: Association of International Educators, August 11, 2026.
  6. US court grants preliminary injunction to block rule that would have ended Duration of Status admissions for international students. ICEF Monitor, September 15, 2026.
  7. Canada's foreign enrolment has fallen by nearly 300,000 students over the last two years. ICEF Monitor, February 4, 2026.
  8. Auditor general blasts Canada's International Student Program. The PIE News, March 26, 2026.
  9. Australia: As visa applications from foreign students fall, the government has set the national target for new international students in 2027. ICEF Monitor, July 9, 2026.
  10. Financial sustainability of higher education providers in England: 2026 (report OfS 2026.21). Office for Students, May 14, 2026.
  11. Modest decline in international earnings 'would double deficits'. Times Higher Education, August 12, 2026.
  12. Number of students in higher education more than doubled in 20 years, but inequalities remain (Higher Education Global Trends Report). UNESCO, May 12, 2026.
  13. Germany's record first-year intake drives 6% rise in international enrolments. The PIE News, December 18, 2025.
  14. Japan surpassed its foreign enrolment target of 400,000 in 2025. ICEF Monitor, February 19, 2026.
  15. After years of growth, Korea faces the challenge of better integrating and retaining international students. ICEF Monitor, August 6, 2026.
  16. UK TNE students near 700k as overseas provision overtakes onshore international enrolment. The PIE News, September 30, 2026.
  17. Southampton's flagship Delhi campus launch builds on UK-India relations. University of Southampton, July 16, 2025.
  18. Manifest Global acquires 100% of BridgeU from Kaplan. The PIE News, April 8, 2025.

Written by the WAC editorial team. Facts are drawn from the numbered sources above and were checked against them before publication; opinions appear only under “The WAC view”. The organisations and people named are not affiliated with the World Assessment Council unless stated. Send a correction

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